TROPICAL STORM (TS) SAOLA DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 KIEWII-COBRASTRIKE GACC DUNDEE UK 0900 UTC SUN 29 JULY 2012 A LONG-LIVED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE PHILIPPINES HAS DEVELOPED INTO A TROPICAL STORM WITH WINDS NEAR 50 KT/60 MPH. AVAILABLE INFORMATION SHOWS THAT TS SAOLA MAY HAVE BEEN STRONGER EARLIER TODAY. TS SAOLA DOES HAVE BANDING FEATURES...WHICH SUGGESTS TYPHOON STRENGTH IS LIKELY WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE FORECAST BELOW SHOWS THAT THE STORM SHOULD PASS TO THE EAST OF TAIWAN AS A CATEGORY 2 TYPHOON AND THEN MAKING LANDFALL ON EASTERN CHINA AT THAT INTENSITY. MULTI-AGENCY INTENSITIES
KCSGACC...50 KT JTWC......45 KT JMA.......55 KT NMC.......50 KT CWB.......55 KT KMA.......50 KT HKO.......45 KT FORECAST
INIT...29/0600Z...18.8N 125.5E...50 KT 986 MB 12HR...29/1800Z...19.5N 124.7E...60 KT 978 MB 24HR...30/0600Z...20.4N 124.2E...70 KT 970 MB 36HR...30/1800Z...21.8N 123.7E...75 KT 966 MB 48HR...31/0600Z...22.7N 123.6E...85 KT 958 MB 72HR...01/0600Z...23.6N 123.5E...90 KT 954 MB 96HR...02/0600Z...26.2N 122.9E...95 KT 948 MB 120HR..03/0600Z...28.6N 121.7E...45 KT 991 MB...INLAND CHINA NEXT ADVISORY PACKAGE
0900 UTC SUN 29 JULY 2012 FORECASTER KIEWII
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West Pacific Basin/2012/July/10W/Discussion 1
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